10 Small Business Trends Shaping Commerce in 2026

Small-business owners are wired for optimism. The average small-business owner is still hiring in a year most economists expected contraction. According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), 58% of small businesses reported hiring or trying to hire, even as only 16% plan to add new jobs in the next three months.

But every new regulation, app, or platform update changes the math a little more.

The following emerging trends show where that adaptation is happening most visibly, from pricing and loyalty to cybersecurity and sustainability. Each trend includes one immediate action you can take to capture the opportunity before your competition does.

10 small business trends for 2026

1. More small businesses are entering “growth mode,” despite economic pressures

A Chase survey across six US cities found that 41% of small businesses are in active “growth mode”: hiring more staff, raising sales targets, or opening new locations.

Context matters here: While costs are still high and tariffs haven’t eased, waiting doesn’t feel safer anymore. Fourteen percent of businesses plan to launch new products, and 8% are preparing to open a second location, according to Next Insurance. 

Confidence is recovering in small steps. 

The US Chamber’s Small Business Index reports that 40% of small businesses now rate the economy as “good,” up from 34% last quarter, and 31% are comfortable with their cash flow, up from 23% in Q2.

Funding is following that sentiment. Small commercial loans of less than $1 million have grown to $421 billion in Q2 2025, up from $386 billion in 2022—evidence that banks are lending again and small businesses are betting on themselves.

Your move: If growth is on your table, line up funding before the market tightens again. Explore options like Shopify Capital or your local credit union while rates are still stable.

2. Small businesses are running lean, powered by SaaS

Small businesses aren’t exactly dodging hiring, but they’re deferring it through software.

The 2025 State of SaaS Report found that the average business now runs on 106 apps, a stack that replaces the roles once handled by a few extra people. Marketing, fulfillment, HR, analytics—if there’s a gap, there’s a plug-in.

This shift reflects a broader set of small business technology trends, where app ecosystems replace traditional staffing. The IT-to-employee ratio has jumped to 1:108, meaning one IT person now manages what used to require a small team.

The risk is that too many tools can quickly translate to no single source of truth. That’s where platforms with strong integrations, like Shopify’s app ecosystem, make a difference. Merchants can connect CRMs, accounting tools, and fulfillment partners without fragmenting their data.

Your move: Look at the tools you rely on most. Are they working together, or just working in parallel? Start by identifying where information gets copied manually. Then replace those handoffs with apps that integrate cleanly with your core systems.

3. Supply chain costs force small businesses to raise customer prices

According to the US Chamber of Commerce, smaller firms are more likely than larger ones to report paying more for goods and charging more to customers in recent weeks. They may not have the margins to absorb tariff increases, so some of the costs may get passed down to customers.

Large retailers can eat some of this, so they’ll take the hit on margins to keep market share. It’s important for small businesses to stay on top of evolving tariffs, customs requirements, and duties. 

Your move: Run a basic landed cost analysis across key SKUs. Then adjust pricing, bundle margins where possible, and revisit your supplier mix. In Shopify you can use the “Cost per item” field (Products > Pricing) to track what you paid for each variant, and then view the Profit reports (Analytics > Reports > Profit Margin) to compare cost vs. revenue.

Read more: 55 Insightful Small Business Statistics

4. Mobile and AI-driven cybersecurity become priority for small businesses

Phones and tablets run businesses now, but they’re also the least protected devices most companies have.

Verizon reports that 85% of organizations now say mobile attacks are on the rise. And it doesn’t matter if you’re small or large; the difference is who’s ready. 

The same report succinctly summarizes the threat: “A human hand reaches toward a mobile phone, while an AI hand waits on the other side, representing bugs, deepfake masks and other symbols of emerging AI-enabled threats.”

Some 93% of organizations now report employees using generative AI tools on mobile in their daily workflows. That includes writing emails, summarizing documents, analyzing spreadsheets, and, yes, pasting customer data into ChatGPT for help.

Some 64% of organizations say the top mobile risk is employees entering sensitive information into AI tools. And most small businesses don’t have mobile device management (MDM), endpoint controls, or even written policies to stop it.

Here’s where small businesses tend to lag:

• Only 45% of small- to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) had advanced multifactor authentication (MFA) compared to 57% of larger firms.
• Few have controls for AI-assisted attacks (only around 17%, overall).

Your move: Treat every mobile device like a mini endpoint threat. Require MFA plus device-policy for tablets and phones your team uses for business. If someone hasn’t logged in for 30 days, revoke access. The Verizon report shows most breaches happen through old forgotten accounts that nobody thought to disable.

Shopify power up: Shopify helps reduce your attack surface area. Features like secure checkout, built-in fraud analysis, and multifactor authentication on staff logins can stop customer data from leaking even when your operations stack is being run from five different phones.

5. Small businesses are scaling faster by embracing AI 

Small businesses are shedding the image of technological laggards and embracing AI.

According to the US Chamber of Commerce, 82% of small businesses using AI actually increased their workforce over the past year. 

A remarkable 87% of AI-enabled small businesses report that the technology has made them more efficient, more optimistic, and better at communicating with customers.

The current state of small business AI adoption is distributed across three key operational areas:

• 44% use chatbots for customer service and initial lead qualification.
• 20% leverage coding tools to speed up development and iteration.
• 16% employ image creation tools for rapid marketing and content generation.

Your move: Start with the task your team avoids because it’s slow and repetitive. If you’re answering the same questions in email and chat, test an AI helpdesk plug-in or Shopify Inbox automation. If your campaign timelines keep slipping because creative takes too long, try an AI image tool like Canva’s Magic Studio for placeholders.

6. Small businesses refocus on local, premium customers to build resilience

Small businesses are doubling down on what they do best: serving their local community. The latest Amex Trendex data shows that 92% are prioritizing expansion in their local markets, far outpacing efforts for national (78%) or international (60%) growth.

Simultaneously, small businesses are becoming more selective about who they serve. A significant 78% are intentionally pursuing those with higher average order values (AOVs) or more frequent repeat purchases.

This strategy prioritizes quality of spend and close-knit local ties over chasing wide, anonymous market reach.

Your move: Start with your top-performing ZIP codes. Build a geo-segmented audience and test premium-only offers; think bundles, concierge support, exclusive variants, and early access. Focus on the customers already showing up consistently, and give them more reasons to stay.

Glossier, for example, used location-based marketing (LBM) to create an early access scavenger hunt tied to its Boy Brow Arch product launch. Customers who found giant QR-coded posters in New York, LA, or Chicago could scan through Shopify’s Shop app to unlock early access. The app then directed them to their nearest Glossier store, and Shopify’s location technology made sure that only users who were physically present could claim the offer.

“Layering on an interactive experience that’s unique to the location and market—like we did via the Glossier scavenger hunt—provides an unexpected and exciting touch,” said Anna Decilveo, head of merchandising and brand partnerships at Shopify.

7. Small businesses are prioritizing sustainability to build trust and cut costs

An overwhelming 75% of SMBs globally now rate sustainability as “very” or “extremely” important. In DHL’s survey, less than 1% reported it was “not at all” important. 

Everyone’s thinking about it, even if not everyone knows where to start.

The drivers are practical: reducing waste, switching to alternative fuels, and optimizing delivery routes all help lower operating costs while protecting against unpredictable energy prices. 

Meanwhile, investors and customers are watching. A visible emissions-reduction plan makes your business more investable. And 79% of online shoppers now say they want more sustainable delivery options.

Your move: Use tools that shrink your footprint and your shipping bill. Shopify Shipping offers up to 88% off carrier rates from USPS, UPS, DHL, and more, while apps like Planet make it easy to offset carbon emissions at checkout. Once you make the shift, tell your customers. Build it into your confirmation emails, your packaging, and your returns page.

8. TikTok Shop’s explosive growth puts social commerce back in small business hands

Social commerce is one of the most visible ecommerce trends in 2026, giving small businesses direct access to consumers through short-form content and in-app checkout. Social commerce itself isn’t new, but TikTok Shop is making it newly profitable for small businesses.

TikTok Shop boasts more than 70 million products across over 750 categories. 

According to Business of Fashion, TikTok Shop’s US sales grew more than 500% in 2024, then doubled again in the first half of 2025. And small brands are driving a major chunk of it. Despite enterprise adoption, independent sellers now account for over a third of total TikTok Shop sales.

The hashtag #TikTokMadeMeBuyIt appears on more than 150,000 videos every week, making it one of the most consistent purchase triggers on the internet.

You don’t need a paid ad budget or a social team to start. You need a product people can see and want, plus a tight SKU strategy and a few good ideas. 

Your move: If you haven’t tried TikTok Shop yet, pick one hero product and run a one-week test. Sync your product catalog through your Shopify admin, create a video (or partner with a creator), and track conversion natively. 

9. Emotional retail and nostalgia spending rise among adults

When global and personal economic times feel uncertain, we seek small, harmless indulgences to lift our moods: a phenomenon known as the lipstick effect. These are small luxuries that provide joy without the commitment of a major purchase.

Look no further than the Starbucks Bearista cup, a bear-shaped holiday tumbler that “has the internet in a full-blown frenzy.” The cup is priced at $30, but has already sold for $400 on eBay.

According to Circana, adult toy sales rose 12% year over year in Q1 2025, hitting $1.8 billion in the US, and now make up nearly a third of global toy sales. Top categories include:

• 53%: Video games
• 24%: Board games and puzzles
• 22%: Lego
• 21%: Arts and crafts kits

A shift toward emotional retail is driving growth, characterized by adults (often called “kidults”) making purchases tied to nostalgia, identity, and stress relief. This trend creates significant new opportunities in premium, hobby-driven categories for small businesses.

So, what used to be considered “for kids” is now fair game for adult wallets, especially when the product hits a personal nerve. Barclays also points to a broader rise in “pick me up” purchases, that are affordable indulgences designed to offset the daily grind. 

Take Bambu Lab: it’s building 3D-printed toys that incorporate programmable electronics, so the components can be reused, reprogrammed, and remixed, by kids ordevelopers. 

Your move: Introduce a premium, limited-run pick-me-up product (like a high-end candle, a collectible mug, or a beautifully packaged treat). Market the item using language focused on stress relief and identity (“A small, harmless indulgence just for you”) and lean into scarcity by making it a clearly defined limited-edition release.

10. Loyalty program adoption accelerates as small businesses fight to retain customers

The global small business loyalty program software market is projected to hit $2.5 billion by 2031, growing at 9.2% annually from 2025 onward. 

The focus for small businesses is now to make the second purchase easier than the first.

According to Shopify’s 2025 Global Holiday Retail Report, loyalty is all about reliability and experience. Among the findings:

• 51% of shoppers say they abandon a purchase if checkout takes too long.
• 20% of consumers cite lack of transparent shipping and pricing updates as a key reason they won’t shop again. 
• 41% of consumers say free shipping and easy returns are top motivators for repeat purchases.

Plenty of small companies are getting this right. Take Death Wish Coffee: its subscription program, The Society of Strong Coffee, rewards loyalty with early access to exclusive merchandise, rolling discounts, and layered rewards. 

Your move: If repeat customers make up less than 30% of your revenue, it’s time to act. Start with first-order follow-up flows and tiered loyalty incentives (Shopify Flow and apps like Smile can help).

How to adapt to small business trends

Here’s how small businesses can stay nimble without chasing every shiny object:

Cultivate an adaptive, customer-centric culture

Your business model should reward flexibility and prioritize customer feedback above all else. This allows you to stay relevant and quickly respond to shifting market demands.

• Actively seek feedback through surveys, reviews, and direct conversations. Use this data to refine your offerings and immediately address pain points like slow checkout or difficult returns. Your customers provide the earliest warning signals of a trend shift.
• Add Shopify Forms for zero-code surveys, or plug in Junip for reviews that surface actionable insights.
• Before committing to a major change (like a full AI integration or a new loyalty program), run a low-risk prototype. Test a new feature or marketing channel with a small segment of customers to gather data and adjust before a full rollout.
• Use Shopify Audiences to isolate test groups and track performance without muddying your entire funnel.

Strategically diversify and build financial resilience

Look beyond a single revenue stream or customer type for sustained small business success.

• Start with what’s adjacent: What else do your customers already want from you? If you sell candles, could you drop a seasonal match set or limited-edition holder?
• Use Shopify Bundles or Shopify Collective to test low-lift product expansion through curated partnerships or value-packed add-ons.
• Pursue strategic partnerships: Look for collaborations with local, non-competing businesses to share resources, cross-promote, and expand your local reach without major capital investment.

Invest where humans make the biggest impact

Spend your human hours on what softwarecan’treplace: customer relationships and creativity.

AI is fantastic for handling volume, but it fails at nuance. 

First, start with freeing up time by automating the repeatable stuff:

• Automate post-purchase flows with Shopify Flow to manage follow-ups, inventory alerts, and loyalty prompts automatically.
• Recover lost revenue using built-in abandoned cart emails.
• Add Shopify Magic for AI-generated product descriptions, reply drafts, and store content.

Then, reinvest that time and spend it where it counts:

• Talking to your highest-value customers. What keeps them coming back?
• Refreshing your merchandising. What stories are you telling on your homepage this season?
• Creating standout moments. Surprise and delight goes further than a generic discount. A handwritten thank you, a limited drop for repeat customers, a custom upsell based on behavior—all of these deepen the relationship.

And when you do show up live, at pop-ups, markets, or community events, use that time to gather qualitative intel.